I really believe history will repeat itself.
It always does.
So to predict what the markets will do during Comeygate, you need to understand what they did during Watergate.
This video will help you understand the parallels between Watergate and Comeygate:
What did the S&P 500 do during Watergate?
This article from Yahoo! Finance digs in to the details but I found this quote staggering:
From the start of 1973 through Nixon’s resignation in August 1974, the S&P 500 fell about 50%.
I’ve been through this before.
I would really like it better if my portfolio didn’t fall 50%.
It got worse before it got better.
One year later, inflation was running at 9.6% year-on-year; by November 1974, inflation was up 12% year-on-year. Unemployment, meanwhile rose throughout 1974, eventually hitting 9% by May 1975.
So not only did your portfolio get punched in the face, you had a 1 in 10 chance of losing your job.
Sounds like a good time.
What is different between Comeygate and Watergate?
You already know the S&P 500 plummeted 50% but there are some differences between the two.
Even if the results are the same and the President resigns, the economic climate was different during Watergate.
The economy was headed into a recession and not coming out of one.
During this period, the economy was on its way into recession. After economic growth hit an annualized rate of 10.2% in the first quarter of 1973, economic growth rates hit -3.3% in the first quarter of 1974 as the economy entered a recession from which it did not emerge until the second quarter of 1975.
In addition to economic headwinds, Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and replaced it with a fiat currency system.
Fiat currency basically means that there isn’t a physical asset like gold to back up the paper currency.
None of that exists today.
The economy is on it’s way up and the markets are at all time highs.
So hopefully if President Trump gets impeached, it will be short-term pain.
If he does get impeached, at least we’ll have a vice president take over that we actually voted in this time.
Watergate and Comeygate have a lot of similarities.
Let’s hope they don’t share the market results in common.
If they do, we are headed for a few brutal years.
But you will mentally be ready.
So stick with your investment plan and just keep buying.
Do you think President Trump will resign like Nixon did after Watergate?
If so, do you think the markets will react the same way?
Let me know in the comments below.
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